Early Miocene CO2 estimates from a Neotropical fossil leaf assemblage exceed 400 ppm.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The global climate during the early Miocene was warmer than the present and preceded the even warmer middle Miocene climatic optimum. The paleo-CO2 records for this interval suggest paradoxically low concentrations (<450 ppm) that are difficult to reconcile with a warmer-than-present global climate. METHODS: In this study, we use a leaf gas-exchange model to estimate CO2 concentrations using stomatal characteristics of fossil leaves from a late early Miocene Neotropical assemblage from Panama that we date to 18.01 ± 0.17 Ma via 238 U/206 Pb zircon geochronology. We first validated the model for Neotropical environments by estimating CO2 from canopy leaves of 21 extant species in a natural Panamanian forest and from leaves of seven Neotropical species in greenhouse experiments at 400 and 700 ppm. KEY RESULTS: The results showed that the most probable combined CO2 estimate from the natural forests and 400 ppm experiments is 475 ppm, and for the 700 ppm experiments is 665 ppm. CO2 estimates from the five fossil species exhibit bimodality, with two species most consistent with a low mode (528 ppm) and three with a high mode (912 ppm). CONCLUSIONS: Despite uncertainties, it is very likely (at >95% confidence) that CO2 during the late early Miocene exceeded 400 ppm. These results revise upwards the likely CO2 concentration at this time, more in keeping with a CO2 -forced greenhouse climate.

Planktic foraminiferal diversity: logistic growth overprinted by a varying environment / Diversidad en foraminíferos planctónicos: crecimiento logístico sobrepuesto por un ambiente variable

This study statistically assesses the relationship between the planktic foraminiferal long-term diversity pattern (~170 Ma to Recent) and four major paleobiological diversification models: (i) the 'Red Queen' (Van Valen, 1973; Raup et al., 1973), (ii) the turnover-pulse (Vrba, 1985; Brett and Baird, 1995), (iii) the diversity-equilibrium (Sepkoski, 1978; Rosenzweig, 1995), and (iv) the 'complicated logistic growth' (Alroy, 2010a). Our results suggest that the long-term standing diversity pattern and the interplay between origination and extinction rates displayed by this group do not correspond to the first three models, but can be more readily explained by the fourth scenario. Consequently, these patterns are likely controlled by a combination of planktic foraminiferal interspecific competition as well as various environmental changes such as marine global temperatures that could impacted the niches within the upper mixed layer within the oceans. Moreover, as other global long-term patterns have been interpreted as reflecting 'complicated logistic growth', this study further suggests that the interplay between abiotic and biotic factors are fundamental elements influencing the evolutionary processes over the extensive history of the biota.

Este estudio evalúa estadísticamente la relación entre el patrón de diversidad global de los foraminíferos planctónicos en el largo plazo (~170 Ma al Reciente) y los cuatro modelos de diversificación propuestos desde la rama de la paleobiología: (i) "Reina Roja" (Van Valen, 1973; Raup et al., 1973), (ii) remplazo pausado (Vrba, 1985; Brett y Baird, 1995), (iii) diversidad en equilibrio (Sepkoski, 1978; Rosenzweig, 1995), y (iv) el "crecimiento logístico complicado" (Alroy, 2010a). Nuestros resultados sugieren que la forma de este patrón global de diversidad y la inter-relación entre las tasas de extinción y originación de este grupo no corresponden con los primeros tres modelos anteriormente citados. Sin embargo, estos pueden ser explicados bajo el cuarto escenario. Consecuentemente, las dinámicas de diversidad (i.e. patrón de diversidad y tasas de extinción y originación) de este grupo posiblemente son controladas por la combinación de la competencia interespecífica de los foraminíferos planctónicos y varios cambios ambientales tales como temperaturas globales marinas que pudieron impactar el número de nichos dentro de la capa superior de los océanos. Además, otros patrones globales de diversidad en el largo plazo han sido interpretados como el reflejo del modelo de crecimiento logístico complicado, lo que sugiere que la relación entre factores abióticos y bióticos tiene un carácter fundamental en los procesos evolutivos que han sucedido a lo largo de la historia de la vida.